Is Tiny Better?
We are now four years in to The E-bike Boom! It does not show any signs of cooling off any time soon. If we compare it to The Road Bike Boom of The 70’s or BMX and Mtb’ing in The 80’s, we still have four or five years to go. Like them, it certainly isn’t going to die.
There are some things though we are learning. Certainly, the days of huge, hard to handle bikes are going the way of balloon tires and Schwinn Varsities. They aren’t even moving well used.
More and more states are introducing legislation restricting where and what we can ride. This means cadence based systems, that rely on throttles, are going to be phased out. Torque sensing is becoming the norm even on more affordable hub driven bikes. It will require lighterweight bikes. This can’t happen soon enough.
Almost all my motor repairs are directly the result of throttle riding. Even where this isn’t the case, the presence of a throttle seems to be tied to higher maintenence. This may be because there are so many more or they tend to come on cheaper bikes. I am just not seeing a lot of torque sensing system repairs, that do not have throttles, unless they are remarkably over powered (I also will be going away from very aggressive programming). I think of a number of customers that bought Walmart bikes, without throttles and then found they were riding a lot more than expected. Even they have not been back to my shop for repairs like I expected.
Over powered bikes are what I see going away next. More want their e-bikes for practical purposes, even if only for attending events and visiting pubs along our local MUP’s. Just as with high performance cars, the greater the power, the less reliable. I am already seeing folks that are tired of pathetic battery life, of replacing chains, cassettes, tires and brakes. This all comes from pushing bikes harder than for which they were designed. This means we’ll need lighter, more efficient frames and components. I want to give credit where it is due. Dean Wright was the first to bring this to my attention. Now, it is just plain obvious. We may even see a startling shift to Class I bikes as people find it just isn’t worth it on the rare occasion they really feel the need to go 28mph.
Have you noticed that more and more mfg’s are touting the light weight of their new bikes? Heft has always been my biggest complaint. There never has been an excuse. I expect to see more butted tubing, comfort geometry and fewer suspensions on things like commuters going forward. At some point, this and falling prices are going to force me to start inventorying some factory e-bikes (something I have tried to avoid up to now). It will be harder and harder for my conversions to compete (mine have had better handling, range and reliability). Still, I doubt I will see truly touring capable factory e-bikes for years yet. It may be a niche market, but it keeps me busy.
Batteries have been getting larger and larger, but as weight becomes more of a concern, I expect to see more folks carrying two smaller batteries. I am building a bike this week that will have two 10ah batteries. During the week they can rotate batteries for shorter rides. On weekends they can have both for longer rides up to 100 miles between charges.
I have not been a fan of calls for greater regulation of batteries. Frankly, no one makes them well and it is BMS chips that are our biggest headache. That will be addressed naturally as solid state batteries come on line. This, BTW also addresses fire concerns. It is not something that has been significant anywhere, at least per capita, compared to ICE fires. In the meantime, I am going more and more towards Lifepo4 batteries. They will not catch fire, and won’t even overheat. Even if you puncture the battery it will not catch fire. They naturally exceed all U.L. and CA certifications. You can bet it won’t stop calls for certification (pumping up profits for that unregulated, for profit business).
The next big thing I see coming are city cars specific to the unique demands of The U.S. I am a big fan and want one myself. My only concern is keeping them out of bike lanes and off of our MUP’s. Like mopeds and motorcycles, they belong in automotive traffic, but the current push is to allow them if they have a bike lane mode. The problem is the same as e-bikes with an “off-road” mode. People run them wide open, endangering lives in our lanes and on our MUP’s and trails.